One Thing to Watch Today - My Day 4 of NCAA Tournament

What I'm Watching on Day 4

The biggest surprise of Day 3 would be the last game of the tournament, 14-seed Abilene Christian defeated 3-seed Texas 53-52. If you were watching from the tip of the Georgetown-Colorado game through the afternoon and evening, AND still made it through the last two hours of the evening, you should be celebrated for your perseverance.  Thankfully, we have the highlights via social media to keep us up on what we missed.

Before I move into the Round of 32 for the men, and the first day of the tournament for the women's tournament, here's a few observations from Saturday.

• A 14 (Abilene Christian), 13 (Ohio), 11 (UCLA) and 10-seed (Maryland) won games. Combined with the 15 (Oral Roberts), 12 (Oregon State), 13 (North Texas), 11 (Syracuse), and 10-seed (Rutgers) that's nine of 32 games won by double-digit seeded teams. That's pretty much chalk for the higher seed.
• VCU got knocked out because of COVID... while inside the NCAA bubble! Hearing an interview by Andy Katz with the NCAA tournament director provided no clear understanding of how that happened. VCU says they did everything right. So, what went wrong?  Makes you wonder which team in the next round (Sweet 16 or Elite 8), will fall out in a similar fashion.
• Colorado might have had the best shooting performance in the Round of 64. They shot 64% (16-25) from the 3-pt line against Georgetown, 11 of those in the first half. They blitzed the Hoyas 47-23 in the first half. Hard to beat a team having a career night.
• Kansas was down 8 points at the half, but looked like the Kansas we've known to call elite in the second half as they outscored Eastern Washington 55-38 to win by 11 and scored 93 points. That's impressive for a team that's coming off COVID quarantining since they had to depart from the Big 12 conference tournament.
• UCLA has two tournament wins under their belt after beating BYU 73-62.  And given their next opponent, Abilene Christian instead of Texas, basketball analysts are thinking the Bruins could be a Final Four-caliber team to bet on.
• I'm very proud of the effort I saw from Texas Southern and Norfolk State in their second game of the tournament against 1-seeds Michigan and Gonzaga, respectively. TSU had a chance to cut their deficit to 10 with about 2:30 to play, but their inconsistency at the free throw line combined with their bad shooting beyond the arc was too large an obstacle to overcome. As for Norfolk State, well they played arguably the best team in the tournament. And the Zags looked the part. I'm predicting 3 HBCUs in the tournament next year. Book it.
• The only betting trend I'll include in this recap is that first-half UNDERs (point total) went to 27-7-1 over the first three days. That's 80%. My personal rule is to play the trend until it drops below 70-75%.

The Round of 32 cuts the total number of games to eight. Five of them start after 6 pm ET.  But, we have some women's basketball games worth watching as they ladies start their tournament today and Monday.

8-seed Loyola (Ill.) vs 1-seed Illinois, 12:10 pm ET, CBS

• As I'm writing this, the Ramblers, who already have an upset over a 1-seed under their belt, are up 11 with 3:30 in the first-half.  I hope the Illini can impose their will on Loyola in the second half of a ton of brackets will really be busted. Thankfully, I didn't invest too much in Illinois this year.
• EDITOR's NOTE: Illinois lost. Glad I didn't pick them to win in any of my brackets.

9-seed Wisconsin vs 1-seed Baylor, 2:40 pm ET, CBS

• Next to Colorado, Wisconsin may have had the best shooting first game of the tournament. I'll be interested to see if the Badgers and Bears score the ball as well as they did in their previous game - both teams scored 40+ in the first half on their way to 80+ points in the game.  This is not one of those uber-talented Wisconsin teams that people expect much from. Their dismantling of UNC still is surprising and beating Baylor would be equally impressive.

WOMEN'S TOURNAMENT: 16-seed North Carolina A&T vs 1-seed North Carolina State, 4pm ET ESPN

• The Aggies, champions of the MEAC, are a top 5 offense per 100 possessions and they allow less than 50 points per game. All that gets put to the test against an ACC opponent. These teams met at the beginning of the 2019 season. The Wolfpack won 80-44. Hopefully, the Aggies can play up to their talent and stay more competitive early. That'll be important if they are to pull off an upset late.

WOMEN'S TOURNAMENT:  15-seed Jackson State vs 2-seed Baylor, 4pm ET ABC

• It's a big deal that the SWAC champion (Jackson State), who have an 18-5 record, are playing on national television.  The matchup to watch is in the post. JSU's Ameshya Williams vs Baylor's Queen Egbo. Both ladies are Lisa Leslie Award Candidates. I want to see how competitive Williams, who transferred to JSU from Mississippi State two seasons ago, is against Egbo.

11-seed Syracuse vs 3-seed West Virginia, 5:15 pm ET, CBS

• Do you know what the difference is between Syracuse and WVU's record this year? 2 games. WVU was 18-9 and 'Cuse was 16-9.  You might also argue that the Big 12 was rated higher than the ACC, and Quad 1 wins.  This doesn't feel like an 11 vs 3 matchup.  I want to see Buddy Boeheim drop another 30-piece because he might be the best lunchtime player in college basketball.

6-seed Texas Tech vs 3-seed Arkansas, 6:10 pm ET, TNT

• Should a 17-10 Tech be a favorite over 22-6 Arkansas? If you believe the Big 12 is better than the SEC, yes. I don't. I think Arkansas is an Elite 8/Final Four caliber team. They have to win games like this in order to prove me right. They were going up against a good offense in their first game. Now they are playing a good defensive team (Top 10 ranked) this game. I want to see if the Razorbacks match Tech's effort on the defensive end of the floor.

10-seed Rutgers vs 2-seed Houston, 7:10 pm ET, TBS

• I expect an ugly, low-scoring first half because both teams are playing in Lucas Oil Stadium (home of the NFL Colts) for the first time.  Houston should dominate the second half and win by 20.

15-seed Oral Roberts vs 7-seed Florida, 7:45 pm ET, TRUTV

• I want to see this Oral Roberts team keep dancing. That's all.

13-seed North Texas vs 5-seed Villanova, 8:45 pm ET TNT

• Villanova will probably have the three best players on either roster in this game. After seeing how North Texas played Purdue, if they can play as well against Villanova, they will win this game. Something is off about this Wildcats team. I can't put my finger on it, but this doesn't seem like the 

12-seed Oregon State vs 4-seed Oklahoma State, 9:40 pm ET, TBS

• Glad to see that Cade Cunningham showed up for the second half in the Cowboys opening round game. He better show up for the first half versus Oregon State, or the next time we see Cunningham will be at the 2021 NBA Draft.

Today already feels like a day for the underdogs. Favorites better be on their "A-game".  Enjoy the Madness and don't forget to watch some of the women's tournament on ESPN/ABC networks.